Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Edmonton Oilers 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 110 | 110 | 327 |
| FLA | 111 | 113 | 212 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:28FLAUvis BalinskisAssists: Anton Lundell · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:41EDMBrett KulakAssists: Vasily Podkolzin, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 15:30FLAAnton LundellAssists: Aaron Ekblad · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 17:30EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:08FLANate SchmidtAssists: A.J. Greer, Anton Lundell · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P3 13:51FLACarter VerhaegheGWGAssists: Sam Reinhart, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 16:35EDMZach HymanAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:52EDMCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:52FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:38EDMLeon Draisaitl: Cross checking2 min
- P1 6:50EDMMattias Ekholm: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:15FLAUvis Balinskis: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:32EDMJeff Skinner: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:48FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
- P3 8:12EDMJohn Klingberg: Interference2 min
- P3 16:43EDMMattias Ekholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:46EDMCorey Perry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid6:53
xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:22
xG 0.40–0.33 (54%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson3:41
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Perry – Kapanen – Podkolzin5:35
xG 0.20–0.25 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard15:29
xG 0.72–0.38 (66%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Kulak – Bouchard3:34
xG 0.26–0.13 (67%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Kulak11:55
xG 0.41–0.72 (36%)attempts 10–21goals 2–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestVerhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:50
xG 0.51–0.21 (71%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:21
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 2–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich10:06
xG 0.53–0.56 (49%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Nosek – Greer – Gadjovich6:08
xG 0.05–0.35 (13%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Mikkola12:10
xG 0.59–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Balinskis11:34
xG 0.58–0.30 (66%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Ekblad – Forsling15:25
xG 0.58–0.76 (43%)attempts 13–19goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).