Thu, Feb 27, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 18 | 313 | 015 | 01 | 437 |
| PIT | 06 | 314 | 14 | 11 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00PHINoah CatesAssists: Bobby Brink, Egor Zamula · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:44PHIOwen TippettAssists: Nick Seeler, Matvei Michkov · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 7:24PHIMatvei MichkovAssists: Owen Tippett, Rasmus Ristolainen · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–0
- P2 9:05PITPhilip TomasinoAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Danton Heinen · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–1
- P2 9:35PITErik KarlssonAssists: Sidney Crosby · Slap, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 11:05PHIMatvei MichkovPPAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Travis Konecny · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P2 18:17PITErik KarlssonAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Evgeni Malkin · Snap, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 2:30PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Ryan Graves · Snap, 0.05 xG4–4
- OT 1:03PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.20 xG4–5
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:28PHICam York: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:15PITBokondji Imama: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:41PITPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCates – Brink – Foerster14:48
xG 0.82–0.41 (66%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov10:04
xG 1.00–0.73 (58%)attempts 14–15goals 2–2
- Laughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko10:27
xG 0.43–0.30 (59%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Konecny – Poehling – Pelletier3:15
xG 0.19–0.08 (70%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula15:23
xG 1.44–0.17 (89%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Sanheim – York17:42
xG 1.12–0.86 (56%)attempts 15–22goals 1–2
- Seeler – Drysdale12:50
xG 0.48–0.66 (42%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Beauvillier – Glass12:08
xG 0.48–0.08 (86%)attempts 12–4goals 2–0
- Imama – Acciari – Lizotte3:29
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Beauvillier – Acciari – Lizotte2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell16:34
xG 0.54–0.81 (40%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Grzelcyk19:29
xG 1.14–0.81 (59%)attempts 27–14goals 3–0
- Letang – Shea17:51
xG 0.33–0.50 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Graves – Desharnais11:27
xG 0.21–1.50 (12%)attempts 8–16goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).