Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Minnesota Wild 1, Utah Hockey Club 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 06 | 18 | 02 | 116 |
| UTA | 29 | 111 | 311 | 631 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:59UTABarrett HaytonPPAssists: Clayton Keller, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 19:30UTADylan GuentherPPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Barrett Hayton · Slap, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 16:02MINFrederick GaudreauAssists: Matt Boldy · Snap, 0.22 xG1–2
- P2 17:50UTASean DurziAssists: Josh Doan, Olli Maatta · Snap, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 3:47UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Snap, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 9:30UTAClayton KellerAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.27 xG1–5
- P3 15:01UTALogan CooleyAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:08MINDeclan Chisholm: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 4:26MINJake Middleton: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:26UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:48UTASean Durzi: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:14UTADylan Guenther: Interference2 min
- P1 19:11MINJonas Brodin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:14MINMarcus Foligno: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Gaudreau – Boldy6:45
xG 0.62–0.39 (62%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Rossi6:47
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Johansson – Hinostroza – Gaudreau2:50
xG 0.23–0.23 (50%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Zuccarello – Boldy – Rossi5:57
xG 0.23–0.41 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Spurgeon – Brodin13:04
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 11–13goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Chisholm9:43
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Brodin – Faber2:51
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Cooley8:05
xG 1.10–0.27 (80%)attempts 10–3goals 3–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan9:08
xG 0.53–0.06 (90%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Hayton – Guenther10:20
xG 0.42–0.15 (73%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Stenlund8:19
xG 0.20–0.45 (31%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Durzi15:11
xG 1.41–0.55 (72%)attempts 24–9goals 2–1
- Marino – Sergachev12:13
xG 0.91–0.55 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 2–0
- Cole – Kesselring13:27
xG 0.44–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).