Thu, Feb 27, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Vegas Golden Knights 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 18 | 28 | 26 | 522 |
| VGK | 515 | 19 | 19 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:06VGKKeegan KolesarAssists: Brett Howden · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:58CHINick FolignoAssists: Alex Vlasic, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 8:57VGKNicolas HagueAssists: Brett Howden, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 12:17VGKIvan BarbashevPPAssists: Alex Pietrangelo, Victor Olofsson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–3
- P1 16:54VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Jack Eichel, Noah Hanifin · Snap, 0.21 xG1–4
- P1 18:57VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–5
- P2 1:01CHIColton DachAssists: Frank Nazar, Tyler Bertuzzi · Deflected, 0.10 xG2–5
- P2 5:30CHIEthan Del MastroAssists: Ryan Donato, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.10 xG3–5
- P2 13:38VGKKeegan KolesarGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Nicolas Roy · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–6
- P3 6:56CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Frank Nazar, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–6
- P3 9:44CHIPhilipp KurashevAssists: Craig Smith, Connor Murphy · Snap, 0.12 xG5–6
- P3 15:45VGKIvan BarbashevAssists: Brett Howden, Noah Hanifin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 10:27CHITeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:26CHITJ Brodie: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:50CHIConnor Bedard: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Bedard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Teravainen – Mikheyev2:54
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Mikheyev – Nazar3:16
xG 0.19–0.04 (81%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Teravainen – Donato – Mikheyev2:51
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Smith – Kurashev9:14
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 10–9goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Murphy2:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Murphy – Vlasic11:50
xG 0.87–0.82 (51%)attempts 11–21goals 3–2
- Martinez – Del Mastro2:19
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestBarbashev – Kolesar – Howden11:51
xG 1.52–0.25 (86%)attempts 21–10goals 3–1
- Stone – Saad – Eichel10:21
xG 0.36–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel4:55
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Saad – Hertl – Dorofeyev5:15
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPietrangelo – Hague19:03
xG 1.80–0.69 (72%)attempts 25–14goals 2–1
- McNabb – Korczak14:02
xG 0.90–0.38 (70%)attempts 10–11goals 2–2
- Hanifin – Whitecloud18:02
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).