Thu, Feb 27, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Vancouver Canucks 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 28 | 011 | 05 | 224 |
| ANA | 06 | 311 | 28 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:17VANTyler MyersAssists: Drew O'Connor, Conor Garland · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 16:52VANPius SuterAssists: Tyler Myers, Brock Boeser · Poke, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 5:27ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Ryan Strome, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:09ANACutter GauthierAssists: Isac Lundeström · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P2 18:41ANARyan StromeGWGAssists: Mason McTavish, Troy Terry · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 15:46ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 17:54ANATroy TerryENAssists: Ryan Strome, Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:07VANTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:42VANConor Garland: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:05ANABrett Leason: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:40ANAJackson LaCombe: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:16ANAPavel Mintyukov: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:16VANKiefer Sherwood: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Chytil
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Chytil6:11
xG 0.21–0.11 (65%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – Suter – O'Connor7:10
xG 0.33–0.32 (51%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Sherwood2:20
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Pettersson – Hoglander7:08
xG 0.11–0.35 (24%)attempts 1–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes13:53
xG 0.51–0.32 (62%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Forbort – Soucy5:55
xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Soucy – Pettersson2:34
xG 0.11–0.08 (58%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry11:07
xG 0.63–0.48 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Lundeström – Colangelo – Gauthier8:58
xG 0.22–0.17 (56%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Carlsson12:01
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Leason7:47
xG 0.20–0.36 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe13:10
xG 0.49–0.36 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov11:13
xG 0.43–0.39 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Dumoulin – Trouba3:06
xG 0.07–0.10 (43%)attempts 1–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).