Fri, Feb 28, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Minnesota Wild 2, Colorado Avalanche 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 210 | 04 | 06 | 220 |
| COL | 115 | 312 | 13 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:14MINMats ZuccarelloAssists: Marcus Johansson · Snap, 0.26 xG1–0
- P1 13:58COLValeri NichushkinPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas · Snap, 0.23 xG1–1
- P1 17:42MINVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Brock Faber, Marco Rossi · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:57COLJonathan DrouinAssists: Oliver Kylington · Snap, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 9:49COLJack DruryGWGAssists: Cale Makar, Ross Colton · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 14:39COLRoss ColtonAssists: Oliver Kylington, Joel Kiviranta · Snap, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 19:52COLRoss ColtonENAssists: Devon Toews, Mackenzie Blackwood · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:10MINJonas Brodin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:37COLArtturi Lehkonen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:52MINMarat Khusnutdinov: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:45COLCasey Mittelstadt: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:23COLNathan MacKinnon: Abuse of officials2 min
- P3 18:50MINBrock Faber: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Rossi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestJohansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau11:31
xG 0.69–0.49 (59%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Hinostroza – Boldy – Rossi13:19
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Gaunce – Lauko – Ohgren6:45
xG 0.25–0.33 (43%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Trenin – Khusnutdinov6:03
xG 0.25–0.43 (37%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Chisholm7:12
xG 0.63–0.15 (81%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Faber2:50
xG 0.22–0.11 (66%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Merrill – Middleton2:45
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestColton – Drury – Kiviranta8:26
xG 0.60–0.20 (75%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas9:49
xG 0.45–0.42 (52%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Drouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt8:49
xG 0.41–0.41 (51%)attempts 13–7goals 1–1
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin3:09
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:48
xG 0.59–0.39 (60%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- de Haan – Malinski7:27
xG 0.17–0.16 (50%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Girard2:52
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).