Sat, Mar 1, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Nashville Predators 4, New York Islanders 7
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 03 | 212 | 214 | 429 |
| NYI | 319 | 29 | 28 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37NYIJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Casey Cizikas, Adam Boqvist · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 12:27NYIKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Adam Boqvist, Brock Nelson · Backhand, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 19:31NYIBo HorvatAssists: Anders Lee · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 1:03NSHColton SissonsUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 2:38NYIBrock NelsonSHAssists: Simon Holmstrom · Snap, 0.17 xG1–4
- P2 4:58NSHMarc Del GaizoAssists: Colton Sissons, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 16:21NYIBrock NelsonGWGAssists: Alexander Romanov, Simon Holmstrom · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P3 5:21NYICasey CizikasAssists: Hudson Fasching, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–6
- P3 5:51NSHCole SmithAssists: Marc Del Gaizo, Colton Sissons · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–6
- P3 18:56NSHCole SmithAssists: Tommy Novak, Nick Blankenburg · Snap, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 19:48NYIIlya SorokinENUnassisted · Other, 0.28 xG4–7
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:17NSHAndreas Englund: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 14:56NSHCole Smith: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:14NYICasey Cizikas: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:33NYICasey Cizikas: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:12NSHFilip Forsberg: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:21NSHLuke Evangelista: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 16:54NYITony DeAngelo: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Sissons – Smith5:03
xG 0.77–0.03 (97%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Marchessault – Forsberg5:44
xG 0.70–0.08 (90%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- McCarron – Bellows – Lucchini2:25
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Novak – Evangelista2:27
xG 0.01–0.01 (61%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo13:10
xG 1.57–0.82 (66%)attempts 21–17goals 2–2
- Skjei – Blankenburg12:18
xG 0.28–0.62 (31%)attempts 8–18goals 1–0
- Englund – Barron13:24
xG 0.15–0.80 (16%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestCizikas – Pageau – Fasching7:53
xG 1.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–1goals 2–0
- Engvall – MacLean – Gatcomb6:02
xG 0.47–0.45 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Lee – Duclair – Horvat6:28
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 1–2
- Lee – Horvat – Gatcomb4:22
xG 0.03–0.10 (25%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson13:57
xG 1.07–0.43 (71%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov3:30
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Pulock – Boqvist10:41
xG 0.43–0.60 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).