Sat, Mar 1, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Boston Bruins 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 212 | 08 | 16 | 326 |
| PIT | 011 | 05 | 217 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:32BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Pavel Zacha, Morgan Geekie · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–0
- P1 6:33BOSMason LohreiPPAssists: Pavel Zacha, David Pastrnak · Snap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P3 14:01PITAnthony BeauvillierSHAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 19:19BOSCharlie CoyleENGWGAssists: Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–1
- P3 19:38PITRickard RakellPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:09PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 8:01PITSidney Crosby: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:01BOSJeffrey Viel: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:01BOSMark Kastelic: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 8:59BOSCharlie Coyle: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:33BOSNikita Zadorov: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:48BOSJohn Beecher: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:38PITErik Karlsson: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
- P3 4:49BOSMark Kastelic: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:29PITBlake Lizotte: Interference2 min
- P3 18:26BOSCole Koepke: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestViel – Kastelic – Beecher4:18
xG 0.40–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Coyle – Lindholm – Merkulov3:17
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Kastelic – Koepke – Beecher3:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Coyle – Pastrnak – Zacha2:01
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Mitchell6:59
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Peeke – Lohrei12:30
xG 0.32–0.19 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei3:38
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Bemstrom – Lizotte4:49
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell12:31
xG 0.29–0.19 (60%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Glass – Bemstrom2:27
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Malkin – Beauvillier – Tomasino2:57
xG 0.05–0.07 (38%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestShea – Desharnais5:16
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Letang – Joseph2:12
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Letang – Karlsson3:01
xG 0.21–0.14 (60%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).