Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Edmonton Oilers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 17 | 114 | 110 | 331 |
| CAR | 08 | 012 | 116 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08EDMAdam HenriqueSHAssists: Mattias Janmark · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 16:29EDMCorey PerryGWGAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.28 xG2–0
- P3 4:26CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Shayne Gostisbehere · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 19:59EDMEvan BouchardENAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Slap, 0.73 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:22CARDmitry Orlov: Holding2 min
- P1 3:31EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:59EDMMattias Janmark: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:13EDMLeon Draisaitl: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:59EDMJohn Klingberg: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:26CARMikko Rantanen: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Draisaitl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid3:51
xG 0.54–0.13 (80%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Perry – Kapanen – Podkolzin3:04
xG 0.06–0.03 (68%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson6:00
xG 0.07–0.53 (11%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid11:13
xG 0.57–1.21 (32%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Kulak15:27
xG 1.94–1.02 (65%)attempts 19–17goals 1–0
- Kulak – Emberson2:45
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Kulak – Bouchard2:28
xG 0.07–0.14 (33%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestHall – Roslovic – Kotkaniemi2:34
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Jarvis10:16
xG 0.86–0.60 (59%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Roslovic – Robinson – Kotkaniemi5:53
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 9–0goals 0–0
- Hall – Jost – Blake5:36
xG 0.34–0.16 (68%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Walker9:57
xG 1.15–0.19 (86%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Burns – Slavin14:27
xG 1.22–0.78 (61%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Slavin – Walker3:20
xG 0.46–0.26 (64%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).