Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Winnipeg Jets 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 014 | 114 | 03 | 01 | 1 | 232 |
| WPG | 17 | 012 | 09 | 02 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58WPGMark ScheifeleAssists: Gabriel Vilardi, Kyle Connor · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 3:48PHIJamie DrysdaleAssists: Noah Cates, Nick Seeler · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. WPG Mark Scheifele stopped
- 2. PHI Travis Konecny stopped
- 3. WPG Kyle Connor stopped
- 4. PHI Matvei Michkov scored
- 5. WPG Gabriel Vilardi stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 14:52WPGCole Perfetti: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:07PHINicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:07WPGLogan Stanley: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:27PHIJamie Drysdale: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:24PHIRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Konecny – Kuzmenko12:28
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Couturier – Tippett – Michkov9:47
xG 0.28–0.28 (51%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Cates – Brink – Foerster11:29
xG 0.47–0.57 (45%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Deslauriers – Poehling – Pelletier4:20
xG 0.01–0.51 (2%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Zamula14:19
xG 0.77–0.46 (62%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
- Sanheim – York17:17
xG 0.69–0.85 (45%)attempts 12–13goals 0–1
- Seeler – Drysdale14:49
xG 0.51–0.72 (41%)attempts 15–18goals 1–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestIafallo – Barron – Kupari6:03
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti12:07
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Vilardi16:23
xG 0.73–0.85 (46%)attempts 16–17goals 1–1
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton12:19
xG 0.48–0.85 (36%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Stanley11:10
xG 0.53–0.06 (91%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Morrissey16:28
xG 0.94–0.62 (60%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Morrissey2:07
xG 0.14–0.06 (72%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).