Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
New Jersey Devils 3, Utah Hockey Club 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 19 | 011 | 29 | 329 |
| UTA | 07 | 17 | 011 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:34NJDNico HischierAssists: Luke Hughes, Tomas Tatar · Bat, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 10:03UTAMikhail SergachevAssists: Liam O'Brien, Kevin Stenlund · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 0:14NJDTimo MeierGWGAssists: Dawson Mercer, Johnathan Kovacevic · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 12:44NJDCurtis LazarAssists: Jack Hughes, Nathan Bastian · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:12UTALogan Cooley: Holding2 min
- P1 15:40NJDBrenden Dillon: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:40UTALiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:12NJDTomas Tatar: Holding2 min
- P2 15:12UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12NJDJack Hughes: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cooley won the faceoff against Lazar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Bratt – Hughes10:38
xG 1.00–0.11 (90%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Tatar – Lazar – Bastian7:14
xG 0.05–0.15 (26%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter8:49
xG 0.18–0.46 (28%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer12:15
xG 0.44–1.10 (29%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec10:45
xG 0.86–0.64 (57%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Pesce – Kovacevic14:21
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Hamilton – Hughes15:04
xG 0.53–0.53 (50%)attempts 19–19goals 0–0
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCrouse – McBain – Doan9:32
xG 0.50–0.22 (69%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley11:49
xG 0.72–0.60 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Stenlund6:49
xG 0.25–0.20 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Kerfoot – Hayton – Guenther11:49
xG 0.37–0.96 (28%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Kesselring10:26
xG 0.95–0.38 (72%)attempts 19–7goals 0–1
- Marino – Sergachev12:39
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Cole – Marino2:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).