Sat, Mar 1, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
Chicago Blackhawks 6, Anaheim Ducks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 08 | 38 | 38 | 624 |
| ANA | 010 | 211 | 110 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:48CHIWyatt KaiserAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Ilya Mikheyev · Snap, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 8:33ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Frank Vatrano · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 10:24CHIPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Lukas Reichel, Alec Martinez · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–1
- P2 13:16CHITeuvo TeravainenAssists: Ryan Donato, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–1
- P2 14:41ANAJackson LaCombeAssists: Ryan Strome, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 4:53CHILukas ReichelGWGAssists: Craig Smith, Alec Martinez · Snap, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 7:40CHIRyan DonatoPPAssists: Tyler Bertuzzi, Alex Vlasic · Wrist, 0.42 xG5–2
- P3 10:56CHIRyan DonatoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.14 xG6–2
- P3 17:16ANALeo CarlssonAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.07 xG6–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 9:23ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:23ANARoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:23CHIColton Dach: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:59CHIColton Dach: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:57CHIConnor Murphy: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:57CHIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:57ANAFrank Vatrano: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:51ANADrew Helleson: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:42CHIColton Dach: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:04ANARadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:04ANAAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Carlsson won the faceoff against Donato
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Donato – Mikheyev11:08
xG 0.75–0.50 (60%)attempts 12–12goals 3–0
- Slaggert – Dach – Nazar8:43
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Bertuzzi – Bedard12:00
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Maroon – Smith – Reichel8:02
xG 0.34–0.58 (37%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Del Mastro3:07
xG 0.45–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Murphy – Del Mastro10:10
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Del Mastro2:08
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry11:38
xG 0.88–0.38 (70%)attempts 17–6goals 1–1
- Johnston – Harkins – Leason6:00
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – McTavish – Carlsson11:29
xG 0.46–0.51 (47%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Lundeström – Colangelo – Gauthier6:17
xG 0.24–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – LaCombe18:26
xG 1.20–0.80 (60%)attempts 28–14goals 2–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov13:28
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Trouba3:27
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).