Sun, Mar 2, 2025·American Airlines Center, Dallas
St. Louis Blues 3, Dallas Stars 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 214 | 119 | 09 | 342 |
| DAL | 39 | 17 | 25 | 621 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:56DALMason MarchmentPPAssists: Mavrik Bourque, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 3:22STLZachary BolducAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Philip Broberg · Snap, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 13:28DALMatt DucheneAssists: Mason Marchment, Cody Ceci · Snap, 0.11 xG1–2
- P1 18:34STLDylan HollowayPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Jordan Kyrou · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P1 19:58DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.33 xG2–3
- P2 1:06DALRoope HintzGWGAssists: Jason Robertson, Logan Stankoven · Snap, 0.15 xG2–4
- P2 8:02STLNathan WalkerAssists: Alexey Toropchenko, Robert Thomas · Bat, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 9:14DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.15 xG3–5
- P3 11:11DALWyatt JohnstonPPAssists: Roope Hintz, Thomas Harley · Snap, 0.21 xG3–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 0:13STLRadek Faksa: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P1 17:23DALCody Ceci: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:13STLPavel Buchnevich: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11DALLogan Stankoven: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:57DALRoope Hintz: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:23STLJordan Kyrou: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:03STLJordan Kyrou: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Hintz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:10
xG 1.51–0.16 (91%)attempts 23–2goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc7:22
xG 0.60–0.12 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours10:10
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:37
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko16:00
xG 1.15–0.38 (75%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Faulk – Broberg12:41
xG 1.01–0.39 (72%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Suter – Leddy12:05
xG 0.38–0.63 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Steel – Bäck – Bourque8:22
xG 0.05–0.14 (26%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Dadonov – Johnston9:33
xG 0.46–0.64 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Hintz – Robertson – Stankoven9:55
xG 0.33–0.52 (39%)attempts 5–13goals 1–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Marchment10:38
xG 0.60–1.17 (34%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLyubushkin – Harley9:16
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Ceci – Lindell13:07
xG 0.54–0.34 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
- Smith – Ceci2:16
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).