Sun, Mar 2, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Nashville Predators 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 09 | 019 | 034 |
| NYR | 115 | 213 | 16 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:32NYRArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Calvin de Haan · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:02NYRJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 3:25NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–3
- P3 16:57NYRBrett BerardAssists: Sam Carrick · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:19NSHCole Smith: Hooking2 min
- P1 4:07NYRMatt Rempe: Elbowing2 min
- P1 4:07NYRMatt Rempe: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:07NSHAndreas Englund: Instigator2 min
- P1 4:07NSHAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:07NSHAndreas Englund: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 8:51NSHSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:26NSHJonathan Marchessault: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:37NYRCalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:55NSHJustin Barron: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:41NYRSam Carrick: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 5:00NSHNick Blankenburg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Trocheck won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Forsberg – Evangelista2:07
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Sissons3:33
xG 0.18–0.14 (57%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista2:52
xG 0.04–0.05 (41%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Marchessault – Bellows2:35
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Gaizo8:59
xG 1.11–0.58 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Stastney – Del Gaizo2:44
xG 0.48–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Skjei – Barron2:07
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestBrodzinski – Parssinen – Othmann8:31
xG 0.22–0.14 (61%)attempts 4–16goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle9:50
xG 0.27–0.60 (31%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Carrick – Berard – Rempe6:49
xG 0.39–0.81 (32%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:58
xG 0.38–0.81 (32%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- de Haan – Jones13:34
xG 0.59–0.89 (40%)attempts 14–21goals 1–0
- Borgen – Miller13:47
xG 0.45–0.91 (33%)attempts 11–23goals 1–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider13:34
xG 0.57–1.16 (33%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).