Sun, Mar 2, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
New Jersey Devils 0, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 08 | 09 | 025 |
| VGK | 07 | 08 | 29 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:27VGKMark StonePPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Jack Eichel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 9:10VGKNoah HanifinPPAssists: Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
Penalties (6)
- P3 1:12NJDJack Hughes: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 8:46NJDPaul Cotter: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 14:45VGKRaphael Lavoie: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:00NJDOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:12NJDDawson Mercer: Unsportsmanlike conduct bench2 min
- P3 18:12NJD: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lazar won the faceoff against Hertl
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Lazar – Bastian8:01
xG 0.31–0.20 (60%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Palat – Bratt – Hughes10:37
xG 0.55–0.48 (53%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Meier – Hischier – Mercer11:40
xG 0.64–0.65 (49%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Haula – Noesen – Cotter8:00
xG 0.18–0.60 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Nemec8:45
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Pesce – Kovacevic12:50
xG 0.70–0.69 (50%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Dillon – Kovacevic2:03
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev10:54
xG 0.63–0.21 (75%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Stone – Pearson – Eichel3:38
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Olofsson – Eichel8:46
xG 0.42–0.34 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Olofsson – Roy – Lavoie2:42
xG 0.06–0.08 (45%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHanifin – Whitecloud16:14
xG 1.16–0.51 (69%)attempts 19–11goals 0–0
- McNabb – Korczak16:06
xG 0.37–0.39 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague17:14
xG 0.61–0.82 (43%)attempts 14–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).