Mon, Mar 3, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
New York Islanders 0, New York Rangers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 06 | 07 | 021 |
| NYR | 27 | 06 | 214 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:03NYRWill CuylleGWGAssists: Zac Jones, J.T. Miller · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 19:15NYRWill BorgenSHAssists: Sam Carrick, Will Cuylle · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 3:43NYRJ.T. MillerAssists: Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P3 14:51NYRArtemi PanarinENAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.83 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 7:17NYIAdam Pelech: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:29NYRBrett Berard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:09NYRBrett Berard: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:58NYIBo Horvat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:39NYRK'Andre Miller: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLee – Pageau – Horvat7:09
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Tsyplakov3:50
xG 0.13–0.11 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – MacLean – Gatcomb2:51
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Palmieri – Lee – Pageau3:37
xG 0.14–0.15 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Pelech – Dobson12:37
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pulock3:56
xG 0.11–0.19 (37%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov15:56
xG 0.56–0.86 (40%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Miller – Cuylle10:51
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Trocheck – Panarin – Lafrenière9:59
xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 15–1goals 0–0
- Carrick – Berard – Rempe8:54
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Brodzinski – Parssinen – Othmann6:56
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Jones14:11
xG 0.81–0.23 (78%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Borgen – Miller13:10
xG 0.57–0.30 (65%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Vaakanainen – Schneider14:43
xG 0.28–0.41 (40%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).