Tue, Mar 4, 2025·Ball Arena, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 1, Colorado Avalanche 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 112 | 09 | 133 |
| COL | 08 | 17 | 310 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:36COLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 18:04PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 15:51COLCasey MittelstadtPPGWGAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon · Snap, 0.15 xG1–2
- P3 18:52COLArtturi LehkonenENUnassisted · Snap, 0.61 xG1–3
- P3 19:52COLJack DruryENAssists: Parker Kelly · Snap, 0.74 xG1–4
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:16COLSam Malinski: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:02COLDevon Toews: Holding2 min
- P3 14:23PITAnthony Beauvillier: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Heinen – Bemstrom7:27
xG 0.52–0.21 (72%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Beauvillier – Tomasino11:02
xG 0.67–0.60 (53%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell13:02
xG 0.39–0.51 (43%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Acciari – Glass – Lizotte10:31
xG 0.44–0.63 (41%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDesharnais – Kolyachonok10:23
xG 0.82–0.26 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Shea18:34
xG 0.42–0.64 (39%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk18:10
xG 0.87–1.45 (38%)attempts 16–23goals 1–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLehkonen – MacKinnon – Necas9:04
xG 0.99–0.29 (77%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Drouin – Nichushkin – Mittelstadt6:02
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Nichushkin3:29
xG 0.01–0.06 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lehkonen – MacKinnon – Drouin2:11
xG 0.05–0.11 (32%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:22
xG 1.10–0.22 (83%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard2:53
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Lindgren – Malinski8:11
xG 0.22–0.25 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).