Tue, Mar 4, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 6, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 411 | 17 | 19 | 627 |
| EDM | 112 | 09 | 114 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Mattias Ekholm · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 11:57ANALeo CarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 13:37ANAMason McTavishAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Jackson LaCombe · Snap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 18:26ANASam ColangeloGWGAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Cutter Gauthier · Tip-in, 0.04 xG3–1
- P1 18:38ANAMason McTavishAssists: Sam Colangelo, Cutter Gauthier · Snap, 0.29 xG4–1
- P2 13:22ANARyan StromeAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–1
- P3 3:56ANAAlex KillornAssists: Trevor Zegras, Leo Carlsson · Snap, 0.27 xG6–1
- P3 4:44EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard · Wrist, 0.21 xG6–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:21ANAFrank Vatrano: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 3:10EDMJohn Klingberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 4:24ANASam Colangelo: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 6:00EDMDarnell Nurse: Interference2 min
- P3 15:15ANADrew Helleson: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:15EDMConnor Brown: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestColangelo – McTavish – Gauthier10:12
xG 0.84–0.78 (52%)attempts 11–18goals 3–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason7:59
xG 0.20–0.57 (26%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry12:06
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson12:55
xG 0.51–0.99 (34%)attempts 9–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Trouba – Mintyukov12:31
xG 0.62–0.68 (48%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Trouba4:38
xG 0.06–0.22 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe19:05
xG 1.11–1.38 (45%)attempts 18–20goals 5–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestNugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Savoie3:22
xG 0.48–0.05 (91%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid6:34
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Henrique – Brown – Janmark8:36
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Hyman – Draisaitl – McDavid6:44
xG 0.56–0.31 (64%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard11:21
xG 0.82–0.17 (82%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Kulak11:28
xG 1.05–0.73 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Bouchard2:14
xG 0.25–0.02 (92%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).