Wed, Mar 5, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 2, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 15 | 05 | 16 | 216 |
| VAN | 017 | 37 | 012 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:21ANASam ColangeloAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 1:05VANJake DeBruskPPAssists: Brock Boeser, Filip Hronek · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 10:33VANTeddy BluegerAssists: Filip Hronek, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 18:51VANCarson SoucyGWGAssists: Nils Hoglander, Kiefer Sherwood · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 13:27ANABrian DumoulinAssists: Isac Lundeström, Brett Leason · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 7:03ANARyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:44ANARadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:41ANARyan Strome: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 4:50VANMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:48VANDrew O'Connor: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 18:51ANAMason McTavish: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P3 6:02VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:02ANAJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:09ANAFrank Vatrano: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:54VANDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54VANDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54ANAJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54ANAJacob Trouba: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:54ANATrevor Zegras: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:54VANConor Garland: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson8:51
xG 0.23–0.33 (41%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason6:33
xG 0.21–0.33 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–1
- Colangelo – McTavish – Gauthier8:28
xG 0.14–0.42 (25%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry9:53
xG 0.19–0.71 (21%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Helleson10:14
xG 0.51–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Trouba2:52
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Trouba – Mintyukov11:26
xG 0.25–0.82 (23%)attempts 12–20goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Garland – Pettersson9:28
xG 0.90–0.04 (96%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Blueger – Sherwood – Hoglander8:49
xG 0.37–0.03 (94%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Chytil – O'Connor – Lekkerimäki6:26
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Suter7:39
xG 0.29–0.45 (40%)attempts 4–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Pettersson13:02
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 15–14goals 1–0
- Hronek – Pettersson7:44
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Forbort – Soucy11:44
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).