Wed, Mar 5, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
St. Louis Blues 3, Los Angeles Kings 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 19 | 110 | 010 | 01 | 2 | 330 |
| LAK | 14 | 19 | 06 | 04 | 1 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:50STLJake NeighboursAssists: Colton Parayko · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 19:22LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Kevin Fiala, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 10:14LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Mikey Anderson, Warren Foegele · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 19:13STLRobert ThomasPPAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. LAK Adrian Kempe stopped
- 2. STL Jake Neighbours scored
- 3. LAK Trevor Moore stopped
- 4. STL Brayden Schenn stopped
- 5. LAK Kevin Fiala scored
- 6. STL Robert Thomas scored
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:39LAKSamuel Helenius: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:44LAKTrevor Lewis: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:12LAKAdrian Kempe: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:05LAKKevin Fiala: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:27STLJustin Faulk: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:58STLBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours13:14
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko7:29
xG 0.38–0.13 (75%)attempts 7–2goals 0–1
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway11:23
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc8:05
xG 0.34–0.39 (47%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFowler – Parayko14:35
xG 0.72–0.32 (69%)attempts 15–15goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg14:18
xG 0.48–0.23 (67%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Suter – Leddy11:54
xG 0.57–0.68 (45%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Foegele – Moore11:06
xG 0.76–0.40 (65%)attempts 16–14goals 1–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Turcotte6:19
xG 0.08–0.15 (35%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Jeannot2:43
xG 0.06–0.18 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lewis – Jeannot – Helenius5:20
xG 0.00–0.16 (1%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Moverare – Clarke4:44
xG 0.23–0.18 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Anderson16:03
xG 0.67–0.66 (51%)attempts 20–20goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Clarke3:41
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).