Fri, Mar 7, 2025·United Center, Chicago
Utah Hockey Club 3, Chicago Blackhawks 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 17 | 015 | 215 | 02 | 339 |
| CHI | 05 | 313 | 05 | 12 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56UTANick SchmaltzAssists: Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.18 xG1–0
- P2 9:23CHIWyatt KaiserAssists: Connor Bedard · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 12:50CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Ryan Donato · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 14:30CHIFrank NazarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 5:04UTAJohn MarinoAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 12:16UTAClayton KellerPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Barrett Hayton · Slap, 0.07 xG3–3
- OT 3:10CHIConnor BedardGWGAssists: Ethan Del Mastro, Teuvo Teravainen · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:58UTAMichael Kesselring: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:15CHILandon Slaggert: Interference2 min
- P1 16:18CHIRyan Donato: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:18UTAMichael Carcone: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:54CHIPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:54UTALiam O'Brien: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:30UTAMikhail Sergachev: Penalty shot holding on breakaway0 min
- P3 11:30CHIConnor Bedard: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McBain won the faceoff against Foligno
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestKerfoot – Hayton – Guenther12:53
xG 1.73–0.45 (79%)attempts 24–10goals 0–0
- Schmaltz – Keller – Cooley13:21
xG 0.96–0.47 (67%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Crouse – McBain – Doan10:30
xG 0.17–0.13 (57%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- O'Brien – Stenlund – Carcone4:18
xG 0.06–0.06 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Sergachev20:39
xG 2.09–0.62 (77%)attempts 27–14goals 2–0
- Cole – Kesselring12:24
xG 0.85–0.27 (76%)attempts 16–7goals 0–0
- Cole – Maatta3:06
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDach – Nazar – Bedard11:05
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 1–1
- Maroon – Kurashev – Reichel5:28
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Donato – Mikheyev10:36
xG 0.13–0.79 (14%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Foligno – Bertuzzi – Slaggert12:00
xG 0.19–1.09 (15%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCrevier – Kaiser2:32
xG 0.24–0.06 (79%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Murphy – Vlasic2:52
xG 0.12–0.18 (39%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Crevier13:52
xG 0.35–0.61 (37%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).