Fri, Mar 7, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
St. Louis Blues 4, Anaheim Ducks 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 16 | 26 | 422 |
| ANA | 18 | 08 | 28 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Nick Leddy, Cam Fowler · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 14:48ANASam ColangeloPPAssists: Jackson LaCombe, Mason McTavish · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 10:49STLBrayden SchennAssists: Dylan Holloway, Jordan Kyrou · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 5:21STLZachary BolducAssists: Cam Fowler, Alexey Toropchenko · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 16:58ANAFrank VatranoAssists: Troy Terry · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 18:13STLBrayden SchennENGWGAssists: Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.67 xG4–2
- P3 19:17ANAAlex KillornAssists: Troy Terry, Frank Vatrano · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:10STLAlexey Toropchenko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:41ANAJackson LaCombe: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:11STLNathan Walker: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 4:44STLNick Leddy: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:25STLPavel Buchnevich: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:45
xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway10:30
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc8:09
xG 0.31–0.34 (48%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:23
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 11–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker10:58
xG 0.56–0.27 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Broberg17:38
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
- Leddy – Fowler16:13
xG 0.79–0.97 (45%)attempts 14–20goals 3–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Vatrano – Terry10:51
xG 0.60–0.39 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Killorn – Zegras – Carlsson10:00
xG 0.62–0.41 (60%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Harkins – Lundeström – Leason8:49
xG 0.08–0.23 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Colangelo – McTavish – Gauthier10:44
xG 0.35–0.62 (36%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gudas – LaCombe16:36
xG 0.77–0.73 (51%)attempts 16–18goals 0–1
- Trouba – Mintyukov12:43
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Trouba – Zellweger3:07
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).