Sat, Mar 8, 2025·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Seattle Kraken 4, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 07 | 316 | 19 | 432 |
| PHI | 111 | 09 | 04 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:28PHIOwen TippettAssists: Matvei Michkov, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 10:11SEATye KartyeAssists: Vince Dunn · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 18:57SEAMatty BeniersGWGAssists: Ryker Evans, Adam Larsson · Snap, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 19:38SEAChandler StephensonSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.23 xG3–1
- P3 3:55SEABrandon MontourAssists: Matty Beniers · Slap, 0.01 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:02SEAMatty Beniers: High sticking2 min
- P1 7:37SEAJamie Oleksiak: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:37SEAAndre Burakovsky: Slashing2 min
- P1 0:00PHIOlle Lycksell: Holding2 min
- P2 17:09SEAMichael Eyssimont: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:27PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:10SEABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:43PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Cates
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestSchwartz – Kakko – Beniers10:52
xG 0.60–0.18 (77%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Hayden – Eyssimont – Kartye5:58
xG 0.34–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen6:30
xG 0.52–0.24 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Burakovsky – McCann – Wright6:44
xG 0.21–0.04 (84%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Dunn15:01
xG 0.78–0.18 (82%)attempts 26–13goals 0–0
- Oleksiak – Montour12:31
xG 0.68–0.32 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Mahura – Evans10:30
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCouturier – Tippett – Michkov6:50
xG 0.55–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Konecny – Poehling – Lycksell5:02
xG 0.14–0.11 (55%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Couturier – Konecny – Tippett2:10
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Abols – Pelletier4:57
xG 0.09–0.31 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Sanheim – Andrae2:37
xG 0.01–0.04 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seeler – Zamula8:48
xG 0.08–0.36 (18%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
- Ristolainen – Andrae11:05
xG 0.35–0.80 (31%)attempts 5–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it SEA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − SEA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).