Sat, Mar 8, 2025·Amerant Bank Arena, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 0, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 94% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 09 | 03 | 021 |
| FLA | 111 | 213 | 112 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:20FLAA.J. GreerGWGAssists: Nate Schmidt, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 9:32FLACarter VerhaegheAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 17:09FLAAnton LundellAssists: Nate Schmidt, Jesper Boqvist · Wrist, 0.37 xG0–3
- P3 19:26FLASam BennettENAssists: Sam Reinhart, Niko Mikkola · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:41FLAAnton Lundell: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:17FLAAaron Ekblad: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:17FLAA.J. Greer: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:17BUFJosh Dunne: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:24BUFZach Benson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Norris won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestTuch – McLeod – Benson2:16
xG 0.41–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Norris7:07
xG 0.38–0.30 (56%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Krebs – Rosen – Benson5:57
xG 0.12–0.05 (70%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Thompson – Norris – Benson3:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlin – Power2:00
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Byram – Power3:27
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bryson – Samuelsson2:35
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBoqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:04
xG 1.68–0.43 (80%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Nosek – Greer – Sturm7:21
xG 0.31–0.17 (65%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart14:13
xG 0.48–0.45 (51%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich13:01
xG 0.30–0.30 (50%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Schmidt13:51
xG 2.36–0.36 (87%)attempts 24–14goals 2–0
- Jones – Mikkola16:11
xG 1.03–0.68 (60%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Ekblad – Forsling16:39
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 94% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).