Sat, Mar 8, 2025·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 06 | 111 | 12 | 00 | 219 |
| NSH | 017 | 210 | 012 | 12 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:56CHIAlex VlasicAssists: Connor Bedard, Colton Dach · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 2:36NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nick Blankenburg · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:20NSHSteven StamkosAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Snap, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 12:22CHIIlya MikheyevAssists: Ryan Donato, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- OT 2:39NSHSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Spencer Stastney · Slap, 0.10 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:33CHIIlya Mikheyev: Holding2 min
- P2 2:21CHIAlec Martinez: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 4:31NSHBrady Skjei: Interference2 min
- P2 13:50NSHJordan Oesterle: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:12NSHBrady Skjei: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 7:15CHIColton Dach: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:15CHIColton Dach: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:15NSHJustin Barron: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Foligno won the faceoff against McCarron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Donato – Mikheyev10:33
xG 0.33–0.10 (77%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Dach – Nazar – Bedard8:44
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Foligno – Bertuzzi – Slaggert6:18
xG 0.17–0.66 (21%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Maroon – Veleno – Reichel7:48
xG 0.06–0.93 (6%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Crevier13:44
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 6–19goals 0–1
- Murphy – Del Mastro15:43
xG 0.51–1.15 (31%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
- Martinez – Kaiser12:42
xG 0.11–0.77 (12%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – O'Reilly – Evangelista13:29
xG 0.95–0.16 (85%)attempts 15–6goals 1–1
- McCarron – Bellows – Smith3:16
xG 0.55–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Vrana – Smith – Svechkov6:07
xG 0.50–0.22 (70%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Sissons9:02
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOesterle – Barron4:32
xG 0.80–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg8:14
xG 0.52–0.17 (75%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Englund – Stastney2:13
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).