Sun, Mar 9, 2025·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 6, Vegas Golden Knights 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 216 | 27 | 212 | 635 |
| VGK | 07 | 217 | 38 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:22LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Joel Edmundson, Brandt Clarke · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:29LAKBrandt ClarkeAssists: Adrian Kempe, Joel Edmundson · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 1:56LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Kevin Fiala, Alex Laferriere · Deflected, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 5:00VGKNicolas RoyAssists: Brayden McNabb, Reilly Smith · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 9:47VGKTomas HertlAssists: Kaedan Korczak, Pavel Dorofeyev · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 18:51LAKWarren FoegeleAssists: Phillip Danault, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–2
- P3 4:02LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.09 xG5–2
- P3 8:28VGKTomas HertlPPAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.20 xG5–3
- P3 10:57LAKAdrian KempePPGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar, Kevin Fiala · Snap, 0.19 xG6–3
- P3 11:33VGKBrandon SaadUnassisted · Slap, 0.14 xG6–4
- P3 17:48VGKTomas HertlAssists: Mark Stone, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.24 xG6–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 2:00VGKNicolas Hague: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:00LAKSamuel Helenius: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:51LAKQuinton Byfield: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 10:32VGKVictor Olofsson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Howden
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere14:20
xG 0.93–0.37 (71%)attempts 14–18goals 1–1
- Danault – Foegele – Moore12:51
xG 0.56–0.41 (58%)attempts 11–13goals 2–2
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko12:50
xG 0.83–0.70 (54%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Jeannot – Turcotte – Helenius6:15
xG 0.13–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson21:36
xG 1.32–0.49 (73%)attempts 27–26goals 1–1
- Edmundson – Clarke13:42
xG 0.79–0.20 (80%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Edmundson – Gavrikov4:43
xG 0.41–0.14 (74%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:59
xG 0.73–0.59 (55%)attempts 15–11goals 2–1
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel3:37
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Olofsson – Roy12:45
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Kolesar – Howden10:44
xG 0.23–0.38 (37%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak14:27
xG 1.01–0.29 (78%)attempts 20–17goals 2–1
- McNabb – Whitecloud2:37
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hanifin2:22
xG 0.02–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).