Sun, Mar 9, 2025·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 07 | 27 | 25 | 419 |
| VAN | 06 | 17 | 010 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:17DALThomas HarleyAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 11:35VANDerek ForbortAssists: Conor Garland, Nils Hoglander · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 19:34DALMikael GranlundGWGAssists: Cody Ceci, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P3 8:26DALJason RobertsonAssists: Matt Duchene · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 18:52DALMikko RantanenENAssists: Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.56 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:00VANDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:41DALMavrik Bourque: Holding2 min
- P1 17:24DALMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min
- P1 17:24VANDakota Joshua: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:24VANMarcus Pettersson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:26VANTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:45DALLian Bichsel: Interference2 min
- P3 10:32VANTyler Myers: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Marchment – Bourque5:38
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Rantanen – Robertson – Johnston7:58
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Duchene – Granlund – Robertson3:22
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Blackwell – Steel – Bäck8:01
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dumba – Bichsel12:01
xG 0.09–0.45 (16%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Lyubushkin – Harley11:52
xG 0.28–0.90 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 2–1
- Ceci – Lindell13:25
xG 0.14–0.94 (13%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBlueger – Joshua – Garland3:51
xG 0.81–0.10 (89%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Chytil – O'Connor – Lekkerimäki8:44
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Boeser – DeBrusk – Suter7:22
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Pettersson – Sherwood – Hoglander4:08
xG 0.14–0.04 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestForbort – Mancini9:03
xG 0.99–0.10 (91%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Myers – Pettersson9:31
xG 0.61–0.16 (80%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Hronek – Pettersson12:28
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).