Sun, Mar 9, 2025·Honda Center, Anaheim
New York Islanders 1, Anaheim Ducks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 010 | 116 | 132 |
| ANA | 19 | 110 | 29 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:52ANASam ColangeloAssists: Cutter Gauthier, Mason McTavish · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 14:56ANADrew HellesonGWGAssists: Pavel Mintyukov, Trevor Zegras · Wrist, 0.00 xG0–2
- P3 0:43ANAMason McTavishPPAssists: Leo Carlsson · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P3 8:18ANASam ColangeloENAssists: Isac Lundeström · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–4
- P3 15:10NYITony DeAngeloAssists: Maxim Tsyplakov, Adam Boqvist · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 19:11ANARyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:31NYINoah Dobson: Holding2 min
- P2 19:03NYISimon Holmstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:43ANAPavel Mintyukov: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:17NYINoah Dobson: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 12:56ANAJacob Trouba: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Strome won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Duclair – Horvat10:41
xG 0.97–0.89 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom9:20
xG 0.35–0.28 (56%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Tsyplakov7:21
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Dobson12:36
xG 0.84–0.45 (65%)attempts 21–7goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pulock7:24
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pulock – Romanov2:46
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Zegras – Carlsson10:24
xG 0.88–0.36 (71%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Colangelo – McTavish – Gauthier9:09
xG 0.46–0.17 (74%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Johnston – Harkins – Lundeström8:18
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Strome – Vatrano – Terry11:09
xG 0.61–1.00 (38%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Zellweger14:59
xG 1.02–0.09 (92%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Gudas – LaCombe15:45
xG 0.66–0.85 (44%)attempts 13–18goals 0–0
- Helleson – Mintyukov9:40
xG 0.38–0.74 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).