Tue, Mar 11, 2025·TD Garden, Boston
Florida Panthers 2, Boston Bruins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 111 | 06 | 111 | 228 |
| BOS | 06 | 07 | 311 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27FLADmitry KulikovAssists: Sam Bennett · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 4:49FLAMackie SamoskevichPPAssists: Seth Jones · Slap, 0.29 xG2–0
- P3 8:56BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–1
- P3 13:51BOSMason LohreiUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 16:43BOSPavel ZachaGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Nikita Zadorov · Snap, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (11)
- P2 3:46FLAGustav Forsling: Holding2 min
- P2 6:00FLADmitry Kulikov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:02BOSDavid Pastrnak: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:52BOSPatrick Brown: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:57BOSNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:22FLASeth Jones: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:10FLASergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:53FLAAnton Lundell: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:53BOSJakub Lauko: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:56BOSNikita Zadorov: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:56FLASam Bennett: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Zacha
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestNosek – Greer – Sturm6:03
xG 0.47–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Reinhart11:50
xG 0.46–0.53 (46%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Boqvist – Luostarinen – Lundell9:42
xG 0.20–0.33 (38%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Bennett – Rodrigues – Samoskevich9:16
xG 0.18–0.62 (22%)attempts 5–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchmidt – Balinskis8:39
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kulikov – Mikkola11:24
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–1
- Mikkola – Balinskis2:20
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie10:54
xG 0.82–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Lindholm – Lauko – Khusnutdinov7:10
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Lettieri – Mittelstadt – Koepke8:01
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Brown – Kastelic – Beecher6:15
xG 0.15–0.24 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZadorov – Jokiharju14:13
xG 0.84–0.47 (64%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei5:03
xG 0.28–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Wotherspoon – Mitchell7:15
xG 0.22–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).