Tue, Mar 11, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
New York Islanders 1, Los Angeles Kings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 117 | 011 | 134 |
| LAK | 115 | 29 | 18 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:33LAKVladislav GavrikovAssists: Anze Kopitar, Jordan Spence · Slap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 8:37NYIAnders LeeAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 9:14LAKPhillip DanaultGWGAssists: Trevor Moore, Warren Foegele · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 14:00LAKQuinton ByfieldSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 18:43LAKDrew DoughtyENUnassisted · Slap, 0.23 xG1–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:24LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:44NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:39LAKAlex Turcotte: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:40LAKJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 17:49LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Holding2 min
- P3 0:27LAKWarren Foegele: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:16LAKAlex Laferriere: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:15LAKQuinton Byfield: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 17:27LAKJoel Edmundson: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom8:03
xG 0.33–0.31 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov2:39
xG 0.01–0.00 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Engvall – Tsyplakov4:18
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Fasching – MacLean – Gatcomb3:55
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Romanov2:02
xG 0.15–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson6:02
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- DeAngelo – Romanov11:14
xG 0.52–0.48 (52%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestJeannot – Turcotte – Helenius6:36
xG 0.52–0.06 (90%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore7:47
xG 0.35–0.22 (61%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere6:47
xG 0.34–0.32 (51%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko9:12
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson13:27
xG 0.79–0.22 (78%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Clarke10:05
xG 0.52–0.45 (54%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gavrikov – Spence7:03
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 2–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).