Tue, Mar 11, 2025·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 3, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 07 | 28 | 14 | 319 |
| SJS | 05 | 013 | 29 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:11NSHFilip ForsbergPPAssists: Fedor Svechkov, Nick Blankenburg · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 15:17NSHSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brady Skjei · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P3 3:42SJSPatrick GilesAssists: Carl Grundstrom · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P3 3:56SJSCollin GrafAssists: Will Smith · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 6:32NSHKieffer BellowsGWGAssists: Filip Forsberg · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:30NSHAndreas Englund: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:30SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:16SJSVincent Desharnais: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:16NSHCole Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:16SJSVincent Desharnais: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:10NSHKieffer Bellows: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:49SJSMario Ferraro: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:28NSHBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:05SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:39SJSTimothy Liljegren: Interference2 min
- P3 18:25SJSAlexander Wennberg: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Celebrini
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestForsberg – McCarron – Bellows4:03
xG 0.27–0.19 (58%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- McCarron – Bellows – Smith2:14
xG 0.01–0.01 (53%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Marchessault – Forsberg – Sissons4:02
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Vrana – Smith – Svechkov6:04
xG 0.25–0.50 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStastney – Del Gaizo8:08
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Oesterle – Barron5:18
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Skjei – Blankenburg10:26
xG 0.33–0.40 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestGoodrow – Grundstrom – Giles6:22
xG 0.56–0.01 (99%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Toffoli – Eklund – Celebrini7:31
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Dellandrea – Kovalenko – Graf3:44
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Toffoli – Wennberg – Eklund7:12
xG 0.18–0.06 (77%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerraro – Mukhamadullin13:42
xG 0.99–0.31 (77%)attempts 10–9goals 2–1
- Vlasic – Liljegren9:15
xG 0.47–0.36 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Schuldt11:34
xG 0.10–0.02 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).