Wed, Mar 12, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Montréal Canadiens 4, Seattle Kraken 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 315 | 15 | 00 | 425 |
| SEA | 115 | 113 | 26 | 11 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:54SEABrandon MontourAssists: Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 4:47SEAEeli TolvanenAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 7:11MTLPatrik LainePPAssists: Nick Suzuki, Lane Hutson · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:21MTLAlex NewhookAssists: Patrik Laine · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P2 14:04MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Cole Caufield, Lane Hutson · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P3 7:18MTLJuraj SlafkovskýAssists: Jayden Struble, Nick Suzuki · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 10:53SEAJani NymanPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Brandon Montour · Snap, 0.22 xG4–3
- P3 17:48SEAMatty BeniersPPAssists: Vince Dunn, Brandon Montour · Tip-in, 0.08 xG4–4
- OT 0:04SEABrandon MontourGWGAssists: Chandler Stephenson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 16:24MTLArber Xhekaj: Holding2 min
- P2 6:14SEABrandon Montour: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 9:33MTLArber Xhekaj: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:33SEAEeli Tolvanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:11SEARyker Evans: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:27MTLArber Xhekaj: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:27MTLDavid Savard: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Beniers won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEvans – Pezzetta – Heineman7:53
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Suzuki – Caufield – Slafkovský14:04
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Anderson – Dvorak – Laine6:40
xG 0.01–0.54 (2%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Newhook – Roy7:44
xG 0.16–0.72 (18%)attempts 8–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Matheson – Carrier18:20
xG 0.40–0.61 (40%)attempts 19–19goals 0–2
- Savard – Xhekaj9:57
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Struble – Hutson15:29
xG 0.44–1.26 (26%)attempts 13–25goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen12:14
xG 0.86–0.29 (75%)attempts 17–7goals 2–1
- Eyssimont – Kartye – Wright5:50
xG 0.53–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers11:58
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Burakovsky – McCann – Nyman9:16
xG 0.47–0.23 (67%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour14:45
xG 1.03–0.18 (85%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Larsson – Dunn16:43
xG 0.79–0.24 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Fleury – Evans11:08
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).