Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Boston Bruins 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 14 | 213 | 08 | 325 |
| OTT | 415 | 111 | 16 | 632 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:44OTTShane PintoAssists: Ridly Greig, Michael Amadio · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:09OTTTyler KlevenAssists: Nikolas Matinpalo, Drake Batherson · Slap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P1 10:57BOSCasey MittelstadtAssists: Vinni Lettieri, Parker Wotherspoon · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–2
- P1 16:21OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stützle · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 16:43OTTRidly GreigGWGAssists: Shane Pinto · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P2 6:59BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: John Beecher · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 11:01OTTDrake BathersonAssists: Dylan Cozens, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
- P2 13:55BOSMarat KhusnutdinovAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jakub Lauko · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 18:44OTTClaude GirouxENUnassisted · Snap, 0.70 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:01BOSDavid Pastrnak: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:01OTTJake Sanderson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:12BOSJohn Beecher: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:27BOSJakub Lauko: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 15:26OTTAdam Gaudette: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestPastrnak – Zacha – Geekie11:36
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Lettieri – Mittelstadt – Koepke7:16
xG 0.21–0.29 (42%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Brown – Kastelic – Beecher4:30
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Lauko – Khusnutdinov8:18
xG 0.14–0.59 (19%)attempts 7–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestWotherspoon – Mitchell11:34
xG 0.42–0.13 (77%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Lohrei2:40
xG 0.14–0.03 (82%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Zadorov – Jokiharju13:09
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPerron – Batherson – Cozens10:43
xG 0.77–0.14 (85%)attempts 14–9goals 2–0
- Amadio – Pinto – Greig12:13
xG 0.73–0.51 (59%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
- Highmore – Gaudette – Zetterlund7:05
xG 0.13–0.03 (82%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Tkachuk – Stützle9:30
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSanderson – Zub14:55
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Kleven – Matinpalo11:47
xG 0.60–0.26 (70%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Jensen – Chabot17:41
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).