Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Edmonton Oilers 2, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 08 | 16 | 119 | 233 |
| NJD | 05 | 111 | 26 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:58NJDBrett PesceAssists: Erik Haula, Jesper Bratt · Snap, 0.13 xG0–1
- P2 10:05EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 4:18EDMEvan BouchardAssists: Jake Walman, Connor McDavid · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–1
- P3 6:50NJDJesper BrattAssists: Brett Pesce, Timo Meier · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 8:25NJDSimon NemecGWGAssists: Jesper Bratt, Nico Hischier · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:45EDMDarnell Nurse: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:22EDMMax Jones: Interference2 min
- P2 1:06NJDTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 12:09EDMZach Hyman: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Henrique won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Draisaitl – McDavid14:16
xG 1.48–0.04 (97%)attempts 23–5goals 2–0
- Henrique – Skinner – Arvidsson5:12
xG 0.62–0.58 (52%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Brown – Podkolzin4:37
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid3:15
xG 0.03–0.05 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNurse – Bouchard2:31
xG 0.72–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nurse – Stecher9:24
xG 0.58–0.15 (80%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Walman – Bouchard16:04
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 21–19goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHaula – Bratt – Glass8:11
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier9:46
xG 0.32–0.34 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Tatar – Palat – Mercer9:31
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Meier – Bratt – Hischier4:26
xG 0.10–0.57 (15%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Kovacevic4:21
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemec8:44
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Dillon – Pesce3:27
xG 0.01–0.29 (4%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).