Thu, Mar 13, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
St. Louis Blues 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 015 | 112 | 28 | 335 |
| PIT | 15 | 212 | 25 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:17PITRyan GravesAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 2:20PITConor TimminsAssists: Danton Heinen, Philip Tomasino · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:35STLZachary BolducPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.16 xG1–2
- P2 17:42PITConnor DewarAssists: Blake Lizotte, Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 1:26STLDylan HollowayPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Jake Neighbours · Slap, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 7:15PITBryan RustGWGAssists: Rickard Rakell, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 8:56STLAlexey ToropchenkoAssists: Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:52PITRickard RakellENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.73 xG3–5
Penalties (2)
- P2 11:07PITConor Timmins: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:52PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thomas won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestFaksa – Walker – Toropchenko10:59
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours11:41
xG 0.46–0.28 (62%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc7:28
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Buchnevich – Thomas – Bolduc4:00
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker15:00
xG 0.59–0.09 (86%)attempts 22–7goals 1–1
- Faulk – Broberg17:35
xG 0.92–0.48 (66%)attempts 27–14goals 0–1
- Suter – Fowler2:04
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestAcciari – Dewar – Lizotte9:40
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Malkin – Heinen – Tomasino15:02
xG 0.34–0.48 (41%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
- Hayes – Imama – Bemstrom6:23
xG 0.03–0.25 (11%)attempts 2–12goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Rakell14:48
xG 0.44–0.91 (33%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Graves – Timmins10:53
xG 0.28–0.24 (54%)attempts 10–9goals 2–0
- Grzelcyk – Timmins3:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Graves2:09
xG 0.09–0.22 (28%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).