Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 26 | 19 | 114 | 429 |
| CBJ | 014 | 07 | 06 | 027 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:00VGKNicolas RoyPPGWGAssists: Jack Eichel, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P1 19:01VGKBrandon SaadAssists: Reilly Smith, Nicolas Roy · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–0
- P2 12:17VGKPavel DorofeyevAssists: Tomas Hertl, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–0
- P3 15:38VGKAlex PietrangeloENAssists: Keegan Kolesar, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:38VGKIvan Barbashev: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:33CBJJustin Danforth: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 14:13VGKPavel Dorofeyev: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 6:32CBJDante Fabbro: Interference2 min
- P3 12:59CBJDante Fabbro: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Jenner
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSaad – Hertl – Dorofeyev11:24
xG 0.52–0.15 (78%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Barbashev – Kolesar – Howden9:07
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Olofsson – Roy7:38
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Stone – Pearson – Eichel9:24
xG 0.19–0.74 (21%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Korczak13:32
xG 1.07–0.18 (86%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Pietrangelo – Hague12:32
xG 0.25–0.37 (40%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud18:31
xG 0.62–1.10 (36%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Kunin – Danforth5:51
xG 0.54–0.03 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Jenner – Olivier – Johnson7:49
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli7:28
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Kunin – Voronkov – Fantilli3:20
xG 0.03–0.02 (59%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeverson – Werenski4:02
xG 0.62–0.18 (77%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Werenski – Fabbro12:54
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Provorov – Mateychuk11:46
xG 0.20–0.07 (73%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).