Thu, Mar 13, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Washington Capitals 0, Los Angeles Kings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 010 | 07 | 04 | 021 |
| LAK | 111 | 06 | 210 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08LAKWarren FoegeleGWGAssists: Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P3 1:05LAKKevin FialaPPAssists: Anze Kopitar, Drew Doughty · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 1:52LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Kevin Fiala, Vladislav Gavrikov · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 8:41LAKPhillip Danault: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:15LAKVladislav Gavrikov: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:12WSHPierre-Luc Dubois: Holding2 min
- P2 15:47LAKDarcy Kuemper: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:20WSHAndrew Mangiapane: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 12:41LAKQuinton Byfield: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:21LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min
- P3 15:27WSHDylan Strome: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:27WSHTom Wilson: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:27LAKMikey Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:45WSHMatt Roy: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestMangiapane – Strome – Raddysh2:21
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Eller – Mangiapane – Raddysh5:40
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Dubois – McMichael – Protas3:40
xG 0.27–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dowd – Beauvillier – Duhaime7:42
xG 0.13–0.05 (73%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Sandin11:47
xG 0.55–0.42 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Roy – Fehérváry9:53
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fehérváry4:03
xG 0.10–0.05 (66%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestFiala – Byfield – Laferriere10:12
xG 0.53–0.17 (75%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Danault – Foegele – Moore9:36
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Jeannot – Turcotte – Helenius9:07
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko8:49
xG 0.19–0.28 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGavrikov – Spence11:15
xG 0.81–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–7goals 2–0
- Edmundson – Gavrikov2:20
xG 0.07–0.02 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Clarke12:14
xG 0.37–0.32 (53%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).