Fri, Mar 14, 2025·Lenovo Center, Raleigh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 16 | 06 | 114 | 226 |
| CAR | 09 | 312 | 111 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:07DETAlex DeBrincatAssists: Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:22CARTaylor HallAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:44CARJack RoslovicAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Scott Morrow · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P2 12:18CARJalen ChatfieldGWGAssists: Sean Walker, Seth Jarvis · Snap, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 2:53DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Tyler Motte · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 18:49CAREric RobinsonENAssists: Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.43 xG2–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 15:30DETSimon Edvinsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:22CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:09DETBen Chiarot: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:00CARJordan Martinook: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Roslovic won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMotte – Shine – Rasmussen5:16
xG 0.80–0.20 (80%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kasper13:19
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Larkin – Soderblom – Raymond11:17
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Smith – Tarasenko – Compher8:58
xG 0.41–0.42 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson12:42
xG 0.76–0.13 (85%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson13:04
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 12–18goals 0–1
- Chiarot – Seider17:24
xG 0.56–1.32 (30%)attempts 11–32goals 1–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestJankowski – Jost – Robinson6:34
xG 0.49–0.02 (96%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Staal – Martinook – Stankoven9:33
xG 0.36–0.44 (45%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Aho – Jarvis – Blake14:58
xG 0.39–0.79 (33%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Hall – Roslovic – Kotkaniemi11:44
xG 0.50–1.32 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Morrow13:08
xG 1.05–0.37 (74%)attempts 23–10goals 2–0
- Burns – Slavin15:35
xG 0.78–0.76 (51%)attempts 25–13goals 0–0
- Chatfield – Walker13:59
xG 0.28–0.97 (23%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).