Fri, Mar 14, 2025·UBS Arena, Elmont
Edmonton Oilers 2, New York Islanders 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 017 | 18 | 07 | 13 | 235 |
| NYI | 06 | 011 | 15 | 03 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:46EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor Brown, Evan Bouchard · Slap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P3 1:21NYIBo HorvatUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 3:53EDMLeon DraisaitlGWGAssists: Connor McDavid, Calvin Pickard · Snap, 0.26 xG2–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:39EDMConnor McDavid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:40EDMLeon Draisaitl: Embellishment2 min
- P1 19:40NYIPierre Engvall: Interference2 min
- P2 2:43EDMLeon Draisaitl: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:01NYITony DeAngelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:25NYIScott Mayfield: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 5:57EDMCorey Perry: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Brown – Draisaitl8:10
xG 1.22–0.29 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Henrique – Hyman – McDavid5:05
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Janmark – Kapanen6:51
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:17
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulak – Emberson10:54
xG 0.77–0.17 (82%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Walman – Bouchard14:02
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 18–5goals 1–0
- Nurse – Stecher12:39
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- MacLean – Gatcomb – Tsyplakov7:23
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Fasching – Engvall11:17
xG 0.35–0.64 (35%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Lee – Pageau – Holmstrom7:55
xG 0.01–0.35 (2%)attempts 1–9goals 0–1
- Palmieri – Duclair – Horvat11:32
xG 0.38–0.95 (28%)attempts 13–17goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPulock – Romanov2:45
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pelech – Dobson13:59
xG 0.50–0.62 (45%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Mayfield – Pulock10:31
xG 0.20–0.44 (32%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).