Sat, Mar 15, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 16 | 07 | 214 | 327 |
| PIT | 27 | 18 | 49 | 724 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:08NJDCody GlassAssists: Jesper Bratt, Luke Hughes · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 17:11PITConnor DewarAssists: Noel Acciari, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 17:36PITDanton HeinenAssists: Philip Tomasino, Vladislav Kolyachonok · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 4:24PITRickard RakellAssists: Sidney Crosby, Conor Timmins · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 2:22PITPhilip TomasinoGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 5:40NJDTimo MeierPPAssists: Jesper Bratt, Simon Nemec · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 6:40NJDNico HischierPPAssists: Luke Hughes, Jesper Bratt · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 14:17PITErik KarlssonPPAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 19:05PITConnor DewarENAssists: Blake Lizotte · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–6
- P3 19:38PITKevin HayesAssists: Emil Bemstrom · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:02PITEvgeni Malkin: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:37PITVladislav Kolyachonok: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:44NJDBrett Pesce: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:21PITNoel Acciari: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 5:46PITEvgeni Malkin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 12:25NJDBrett Pesce: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Glass
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestSprong – Bratt – Glass7:29
xG 0.21–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Palat – Bratt – Glass3:36
xG 0.09–0.08 (51%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Noesen – Meier – Hischier9:39
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Lazar – Bastian – Cotter7:19
xG 0.09–0.19 (32%)attempts 3–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Kovacevic8:48
xG 0.61–0.30 (67%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Dillon – Kovacevic4:38
xG 0.16–0.33 (33%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Dillon – Nemec5:13
xG 0.05–0.22 (18%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell11:49
xG 0.65–0.47 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Acciari – Dewar – Lizotte8:38
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Hayes – Imama – Bemstrom3:48
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Malkin – Heinen – Tomasino8:53
xG 0.29–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGraves – Timmins8:37
xG 0.66–0.17 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 3–0
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk15:50
xG 0.54–0.39 (58%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Letang – Kolyachonok9:54
xG 0.37–0.46 (45%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).