Sun, Mar 16, 2025·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Vegas Golden Knights 0, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 05 | 08 | 05 | 018 |
| DET | 08 | 112 | 27 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:58DETAlbert JohanssonGWGAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P3 4:51DETLucas RaymondAssists: Elmer Soderblom · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 11:14DETMarco KasperAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Patrick Kane · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:53VGKBrett Howden: Holding2 min
- P2 2:44DETMichael Rasmussen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 2:44VGKIlya Samsonov: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:35VGKAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eichel won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStone – Olofsson – Eichel3:52
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Stone – Barbashev – Eichel6:01
xG 0.49–0.43 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Kolesar – Howden4:33
xG 0.04–0.00 (93%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stone – Pearson – Eichel3:29
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Whitecloud2:31
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Hanifin – Whitecloud16:57
xG 0.52–0.95 (35%)attempts 15–10goals 0–1
- McNabb – Korczak12:26
xG 0.23–0.90 (20%)attempts 6–16goals 0–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestKane – DeBrincat – Kasper13:17
xG 1.63–0.40 (80%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Tarasenko – Compher – Berggren11:31
xG 1.01–0.17 (86%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Smith – Motte – Rasmussen7:56
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Larkin – Rasmussen – Raymond2:09
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHoll – Gustafsson13:09
xG 1.21–0.29 (81%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Johansson – Edvinsson18:41
xG 1.08–0.79 (58%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Chiarot – Seider17:16
xG 0.56–0.32 (63%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).