Sun, Mar 16, 2025·Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle
Winnipeg Jets 3, Seattle Kraken 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 18 | 16 | 011 | 11 | 326 |
| SEA | 28 | 05 | 06 | 02 | 221 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:58SEAJani NymanPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Chandler Stephenson · Snap, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 15:23SEAMichael EyssimontAssists: Ryker Evans, Brandon Montour · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 19:43WPGCole PerfettiAssists: Dylan Samberg, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 11:42WPGKyle ConnorAssists: Morgan Barron · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 1:47WPGDylan SambergGWGAssists: Cole Perfetti, Vladislav Namestnikov · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:05WPGBrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:05SEATye Kartye: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:28WPGCole Perfetti: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:08WPGDylan DeMelo: Roughing2 min
- P3 1:12SEAVince Dunn: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:10SEAAdam Larsson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barron won the faceoff against Beniers
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestScheifele – Connor – Vilardi14:36
xG 0.88–0.58 (60%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Niederreiter – Lowry – Appleton10:19
xG 0.45–0.24 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Tanev – Iafallo – Barron6:26
xG 0.20–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Namestnikov – Ehlers – Perfetti10:30
xG 0.42–0.47 (48%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Morrissey15:48
xG 1.09–0.77 (59%)attempts 19–10goals 0–0
- Schenn – Samberg12:21
xG 0.51–0.27 (65%)attempts 19–7goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Samberg2:14
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Seattle Kraken
Forward lines
- Burakovsky – McCann – Nyman4:52
xG 0.13–0.10 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eberle – Stephenson – Tolvanen9:37
xG 0.49–0.50 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Eyssimont – Kartye – Wright4:57
xG 0.20–0.33 (37%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Schwartz – Kakko – Beniers14:41
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOleksiak – Montour11:42
xG 0.29–0.12 (70%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Montour – Evans8:04
xG 0.46–0.34 (57%)attempts 10–9goals 0–2
- Mahura – Evans5:30
xG 0.01–0.15 (8%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SEA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SEA is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Seattle Kraken win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SEA − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).