Mon, Mar 17, 2025·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Los Angeles Kings 1, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 18 | 013 | 08 | 129 |
| MIN | 09 | 15 | 28 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:59LAKAdrian KempePPAssists: Kevin Fiala, Drew Doughty · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:51MINRyan HartmanPPAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 15:22MINMats ZuccarelloPPGWGAssists: Matt Boldy, Ryan Hartman · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P3 19:04MINMarcus JohanssonENAssists: Jared Spurgeon · Slap, 0.33 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:42MINMarco Rossi: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:47LAKDrew Doughty: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:20MINMats Zuccarello: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 11:26MINGustav Nyquist: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:50MINMatt Boldy: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:27LAKPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:48LAKTrevor Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hartman won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Foegele – Moore12:07
xG 0.36–0.20 (64%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere11:51
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko9:03
xG 0.07–0.16 (31%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Jeannot – Turcotte – Helenius8:22
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Clarke11:48
xG 0.56–0.41 (57%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Doughty – Anderson14:32
xG 0.56–0.44 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Gavrikov3:08
xG 0.01–0.01 (63%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestGaunce – Shore – Brazeau8:21
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Johansson – Zuccarello – Gaudreau9:48
xG 0.13–0.07 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Hinostroza – Hartman – Trenin12:27
xG 0.31–0.28 (52%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Boldy – Rossi10:44
xG 0.14–0.20 (41%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSpurgeon – Chisholm14:22
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Middleton – Faber16:48
xG 0.22–0.38 (37%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Spurgeon – Faber2:02
xG 0.05–0.32 (13%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).