Tue, Mar 18, 2025·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Utah Hockey Club 1, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTA | 09 | 19 | 012 | 130 |
| EDM | 315 | 216 | 212 | 743 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:28EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsSHUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 15:14EDMZach HymanGWGAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 19:56EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 7:41EDMZach HymanAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Connor McDavid · Deflected, 0.22 xG0–4
- P2 9:53EDMVasily PodkolzinAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Snap, 0.07 xG0–5
- P2 16:26UTASean DurziAssists: Logan Cooley, Michael Carcone · Slap, 0.05 xG1–5
- P3 0:33EDMMattias EkholmAssists: Zach Hyman · Snap, 0.13 xG1–6
- P3 2:36EDMViktor ArvidssonUnassisted · Backhand, 0.18 xG1–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:02EDMDarnell Nurse: Cross checking2 min
- P1 13:11UTAJack McBain: Holding2 min
- P1 17:24EDMZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:32EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:32UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:11UTAIan Cole: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:22EDMJake Walman: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:50UTAIan Cole: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Schmaltz
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestCarcone – Hayton – Cooley2:53
xG 0.13–0.04 (75%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan9:59
xG 0.58–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Schmaltz – Stenlund2:53
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Stenlund – Carcone3:49
xG 0.02–0.23 (7%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Cole – Durzi2:10
xG 0.11–0.14 (45%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Durzi – Kesselring4:17
xG 0.05–0.10 (34%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Marino – Sergachev13:45
xG 0.81–0.97 (46%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Hyman – McDavid8:10
xG 1.09–0.41 (73%)attempts 13–8goals 2–0
- Henrique – Janmark – Kapanen7:22
xG 0.80–0.33 (71%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Arvidsson – Podkolzin9:13
xG 0.40–0.08 (84%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Perry – Brown – Draisaitl11:18
xG 0.60–0.51 (54%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkholm – Bouchard13:36
xG 1.55–0.37 (81%)attempts 21–14goals 3–0
- Nurse – Walman12:20
xG 1.06–0.83 (56%)attempts 14–20goals 1–0
- Walman – Bouchard2:58
xG 0.40–0.24 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it UTA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − UTA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).