Thu, Mar 20, 2025·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 5, New Jersey Devils 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 05 | 18 | 415 | 528 |
| NJD | 19 | 216 | 04 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:09NJDNico HischierAssists: Stefan Noesen, Johnathan Kovacevic · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 5:25NJDErik HaulaAssists: Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 11:58CGYMatt CoronatoPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Morgan Frost · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 19:32NJDPaul CotterAssists: Nico Hischier, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–3
- P3 6:50CGYConnor ZaryAssists: Martin Pospisil, Joel Hanley · Snap, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 15:40CGYDaniil MiromanovAssists: Blake Coleman, Joel Farabee · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 16:40CGYJonathan HuberdeauGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG4–3
- P3 19:48CGYNazem KadriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.58 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:05NJDTimo Meier: Boarding2 min
- P1 8:03CGYJoel Farabee: Slashing2 min
- P1 12:36NJDTomas Tatar: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39NJDBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 13:21NJDTimo Meier: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:21CGYAdam Klapka: Interference2 min
- P3 7:17NJDJesper Bratt: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Frost won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLomberg – Rooney – Klapka5:43
xG 0.24–0.02 (92%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Pospisil – Zary11:58
xG 0.98–0.77 (56%)attempts 24–11goals 1–1
- Coleman – Farabee – Sharangovich6:11
xG 0.29–0.15 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato11:06
xG 0.39–0.71 (36%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Hanley15:59
xG 1.16–0.78 (60%)attempts 23–14goals 1–0
- Bean – Miromanov5:59
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Bahl – Miromanov4:24
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Meier – Hischier10:44
xG 0.95–0.64 (60%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
- Haula – Sprong – Glass5:38
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Haula – Sprong – Cotter2:08
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bratt – Mercer9:06
xG 0.26–0.41 (38%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – Pesce3:53
xG 0.27–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hughes14:12
xG 0.75–0.57 (57%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Dumoulin – Kovacevic11:00
xG 0.59–0.69 (46%)attempts 7–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).