Thu, Mar 20, 2025·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Vancouver Canucks 3, St. Louis Blues 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 03 | 09 | 35 | 01 | 318 |
| STL | 012 | 19 | 25 | 13 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:47STLZachary BolducAssists: Oskar Sundqvist, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P3 1:11VANKiefer SherwoodAssists: Filip Hronek, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P3 6:35VANBrock BoeserAssists: Nils Hoglander, Elias Pettersson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P3 9:28STLTyler TuckerAssists: Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:52STLDylan HollowayAssists: Jordan Kyrou, Tyler Tucker · Snap, 0.21 xG2–3
- P3 19:56VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Quinn Hughes · Slap, 0.09 xG3–3
- OT 3:42STLPhilip BrobergGWGAssists: Brayden Schenn, Dylan Holloway · Backhand, 0.19 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 11:36STLJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P1 12:55VANFilip Hronek: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pettersson won the faceoff against Thomas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- Boeser – Pettersson – Hoglander13:37
xG 0.21–0.19 (52%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Joshua – Garland – Aman8:25
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Blueger – Karlsson – O'Connor8:41
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Suter – Sherwood12:16
xG 0.15–0.44 (26%)attempts 16–11goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Hronek – Hughes6:44
xG 0.07–0.05 (61%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Myers – Pettersson2:37
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Forbort – Hronek2:46
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBuchnevich – Thomas – Neighbours13:14
xG 0.52–0.21 (71%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Faksa – Walker – Toropchenko9:36
xG 0.29–0.06 (83%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Schenn – Kyrou – Holloway12:46
xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 11–13goals 2–1
- Sundqvist – Joseph – Bolduc10:47
xG 0.08–0.15 (36%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Tucker12:17
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 2–0
- Faulk – Broberg19:32
xG 0.49–0.35 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- Leddy – Fowler16:12
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).