Fri, Mar 21, 2025·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 116 | 118 | 347 |
| PIT | 312 | 212 | 110 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:28PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Philip Tomasino, Connor Dewar · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 13:51PITNoel AcciariAssists: Blake Lizotte · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 14:07CBJBoone JennerAssists: Denton Mateychuk, Ivan Provorov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P1 14:53PITRickard RakellAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P2 1:35CBJJustin DanforthAssists: Mathieu Olivier, Damon Severson · Backhand, 0.21 xG2–3
- P2 8:15PITBokondji ImamaGWGAssists: Danton Heinen, Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 15:31PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Matt Grzelcyk · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 3:45CBJKent JohnsonAssists: Sean Kuraly, Egor Chinakhov · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–5
- P3 18:03PITBryan RustENAssists: Rickard Rakell, Alex Nedeljkovic · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:49PITBokondji Imama: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:49CBJMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:05PITBokondji Imama: Interference2 min
- P3 6:54CBJZachary Aston-Reese: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:39PITPhilip Tomasino: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Fantilli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestOlivier – Danforth – Aston-Reese8:01
xG 0.87–0.56 (61%)attempts 12–10goals 1–2
- Jenner – Chinakhov – Johnson7:53
xG 0.49–0.30 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Marchenko – Voronkov – Fantilli9:00
xG 0.76–0.80 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Kuraly – Kunin8:01
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWerenski – Fabbro17:20
xG 1.22–0.72 (63%)attempts 27–19goals 1–1
- Severson – Werenski3:39
xG 0.46–0.11 (80%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Johnson – Severson8:13
xG 0.59–0.49 (55%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Rakell13:08
xG 1.23–1.06 (54%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Malkin – Dewar – Tomasino12:48
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Hayes – Heinen – Imama6:05
xG 0.21–0.41 (34%)attempts 4–12goals 1–1
- Acciari – Koppanen – Lizotte10:25
xG 0.35–1.20 (23%)attempts 5–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- Letang – Timmins14:10
xG 0.73–0.96 (43%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Grzelcyk17:35
xG 1.03–1.39 (43%)attempts 20–31goals 3–1
- Graves – Kolyachonok12:02
xG 0.28–0.82 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).