Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Madison Square Garden, New York
Vancouver Canucks 3, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 111 | 013 | 215 | 339 |
| NYR | 01 | 15 | 46 | 512 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:51VANDakota JoshuaAssists: Quinn Hughes, Nils Aman · Snap, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 11:03NYRAdam FoxAssists: Braden Schneider, Brennan Othmann · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 1:39NYRJonny BrodzinskiAssists: J.T. Miller, Alexis Lafrenière · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 11:22VANDrew O'ConnorAssists: Nils Aman, Victor Mancini · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 12:40NYRK'Andre MillerAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Will Borgen · Deflected, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:10VANBrock BoeserAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 15:47NYRJonny BrodzinskiGWGAssists: Alexis Lafrenière, Carson Soucy · Snap, 0.14 xG3–4
- P3 19:43NYRJ.T. MillerENAssists: Adam Fox · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–5
Penalties (9)
- P2 2:05VANDrew O'Connor: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:05NYRSam Carrick: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:56NYRMatt Rempe: Holding2 min
- P2 7:45NYRIgor Shesterkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:03VANJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14NYRWill Cuylle: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:14VANJake DeBrusk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:14NYRWill Cuylle: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00NYRJuuso Parssinen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestJoshua – Aman – Lekkerimäki6:19
xG 0.68–0.16 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Blueger – Garland – O'Connor7:44
xG 0.43–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Blueger – Joshua – Garland3:36
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- DeBrusk – Suter – Sherwood7:38
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHronek – Hughes15:57
xG 1.68–0.27 (86%)attempts 20–8goals 2–1
- Forbort – Mancini8:17
xG 0.51–0.14 (78%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Myers – Pettersson13:16
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Brodzinski – Lafrenière5:44
xG 0.55–0.43 (57%)attempts 5–8goals 2–1
- Trocheck – Panarin – Othmann4:19
xG 0.12–0.08 (62%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Cuylle4:47
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Carrick – Parssinen – Rempe5:00
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fox – Miller2:21
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Soucy – Fox14:22
xG 0.50–0.95 (35%)attempts 8–10goals 2–1
- Borgen – Miller12:54
xG 0.27–0.83 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).