Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Crypto.com Arena, Los Angeles
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Los Angeles Kings 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 112 | 111 | 236 |
| LAK | 36 | 37 | 112 | 725 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:03LAKAdrian KempeAssists: Samuel Helenius, Tanner Jeannot · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 14:39LAKAnze KopitarPPAssists: Andrei Kuzmenko, Drew Doughty · Tip-in, 0.03 xG0–2
- P1 19:55LAKAndrei KuzmenkoGWGAssists: Anze Kopitar · Snap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 5:58LAKTrevor MooreAssists: Phillip Danault, Warren Foegele · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–4
- P2 6:49LAKTanner JeannotAssists: Alex Turcotte, Drew Doughty · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–5
- P2 8:41LAKQuinton ByfieldAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–6
- P2 14:17CARDmitry OrlovAssists: Jalen Chatfield, Logan Stankoven · Slap, 0.02 xG1–6
- P3 18:03LAKKevin FialaAssists: Alex Laferriere, Quinton Byfield · Slap, 0.11 xG1–7
- P3 18:11CARMark JankowskiAssists: Eric Robinson, Scott Morrow · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:31CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:00CARTaylor Hall: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:00LAKTanner Jeannot: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:17LAKAlex Laferriere: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 16:29LAKQuinton Byfield: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:45CARDmitry Orlov: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jankowski won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestAho – Jarvis – Blake8:22
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Martinook – Robinson12:22
xG 0.57–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Jost – Stankoven – Jaaska8:29
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–3
- Aho – Stankoven – Blake2:20
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin9:49
xG 0.62–0.27 (69%)attempts 19–5goals 0–1
- Walker – Morrow12:37
xG 0.82–0.49 (62%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Orlov – Chatfield14:51
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 14–10goals 1–1
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestDanault – Foegele – Moore10:42
xG 0.88–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Jeannot – Turcotte – Helenius9:32
xG 0.12–0.16 (45%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
- Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere12:30
xG 0.60–0.64 (48%)attempts 14–18goals 2–1
- Kopitar – Kempe – Kuzmenko11:01
xG 0.35–0.51 (41%)attempts 6–15goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Anderson15:12
xG 0.84–0.61 (58%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Gavrikov – Spence14:24
xG 0.44–0.43 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Gavrikov2:12
xG 0.06–0.13 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).