Sat, Mar 22, 2025·Delta Center, Salt Lake City
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Utah Hockey Club 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 213 | 18 | 427 |
| UTA | 29 | 27 | 29 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:42UTAJosh DoanAssists: Jack McBain, Lawson Crouse · Snap, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 17:42UTALogan CooleyAssists: Michael Kesselring, Nick Schmaltz · Snap, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 18:49TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Jake Guentzel, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Snap, 0.31 xG1–2
- P2 5:22TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Slap, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 5:58UTAAlexander KerfootAssists: Kevin Stenlund, John Marino · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 17:23TBLJake GuentzelAssists: Nick Perbix, Yanni Gourde · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P2 17:53UTALogan CooleyAssists: John Marino, Nick Schmaltz · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 1:10UTANick SchmaltzGWGAssists: Logan Cooley, Clayton Keller · Backhand, 0.14 xG3–5
- P3 2:54TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Jake Guentzel · Tip-in, 0.06 xG4–5
- P3 19:03UTAAlexander KerfootENAssists: Ian Cole · Snap, 0.36 xG4–6
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:05UTAIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 6:12TBLZemgus Girgensons: Interference2 min
- P2 8:24TBLZemgus Girgensons: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:24UTAJack McBain: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:38UTALogan Cooley: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:51UTALawson Crouse: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Paul
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestBjorkstrand – Paul – Goncalves10:21
xG 0.43–0.07 (85%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Cirelli – Hagel9:13
xG 0.41–0.26 (62%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Gourde – Guentzel – Point7:58
xG 0.31–0.35 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Gourde – Cirelli – Hagel4:13
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Perbix2:07
xG 0.11–0.00 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cernak – Moser2:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Perbix2:06
xG 0.12–0.27 (31%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Utah Hockey Club
Forward lines
- bestSchmaltz – Keller – Cooley12:35
xG 1.30–0.24 (84%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- Kerfoot – Stenlund – Maccelli8:07
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Crouse – McBain – Doan8:25
xG 0.75–0.42 (64%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
- Carcone – Hayton – Guenther8:05
xG 0.03–0.13 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMarino – Sergachev13:15
xG 1.20–0.45 (73%)attempts 20–10goals 3–2
- Cole – Kesselring12:18
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Maatta – Durzi16:47
xG 0.07–0.90 (7%)attempts 2–27goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
UTA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line UTA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Utah Hockey Club win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (UTA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).